2011 should be the year when the superficial aspects of the global art world give way to hard geopolitical realities, so herewith, predictions for the New Year:

THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT WILL COLLAPSE. As "The People’s Daily" trumpets the government’s shutting down of China’s only privately published magazine, a group of government thugs hold down rural activist allowing a truck crush him to death, as the video of same spreads among an outraged Chinese populace, and all this was just this week. The center cannot hold.

CHINESE ART STARS PERCEIVED AS WORKING WITH THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY WILL SUFFER. The spirit of Tiananmen will not tolerate plutocratic one-artist museums established by former Chinese army officers.

JAPANESE COMPANIES WILL MARKET A THIN AIR COMPUTER. One that projects the screen out of your hand into a force field in the air in front of you; the prototype has existed for a few years.

ARAB EMIRS WILL MOVE CHRISTIE’S TO QATAR. The Arab elites will mount a serious attempt to corner significant sectors of the art market as a hedge against currency deflation.

BARACK OBAMA WILL BECOME SO POPULAR THAT HE MAY BE RE-ELECTED BY ACCLAMATION IN 2012. And artists will produce disturbing, Napoleonic images of him in tribute.

AN UNDERGROUND MARKET WILL DEVELOP FOR TERRORIST ART. From Al Qaeda to North Korea, abetted by alienated Western teenagers online.

MUSEUMS SUCH AS THE METROPOLITAN WILL ORGANIZE CURATED EXHIBITIONS OF VIRAL PHOTOGRAPHY. And photography as an art commodity will collapse.

JULIE MEHRETU WILL BE MARKETED AS THE NEW EVENING SALE STAR. Her mural at Goldman Sachs has become an icon of Wall Street’s re-emergence.

A MAJOR SCANDAL WILL ROCK THE WARHOL FOUNDATION. Too much hubris on attributions, licensing and branding will lead to 15 minutes of scandal.

JASPER JOHNS WILL COLLABORATE ON A BROADWAY SHOW. With Philip Glass, Bill T. Jones and Laurie Anderson. . . . so globally melt the ice floes of 2010 and usher in a year of fire.

CHARLIE FINCH is co-author of Most Art Sucks: Five Years of Coagula (Smart Art Press).